Last week, says Andrew Marr in The New Statesman, a very senior City figure said to one of the leaders of Reform UK: “You know it’s now yours to lose, don’t you?” Large parts of Westminster are still “piously” averting their eyes, and Keir Starmer is framing Nigel Farage as his “main opponent” based on the assumption that he’s ultimately unelectable. But Labour’s own internal polling shows “the toxicity of Farage is overrated” – and falling. When the next election comes, the “omni-crisis” will be burning brighter, and the country may well be “on the edge of bankruptcy”. That will make “true radicalism” easier.

Farage’s competitors still regard him as a “Toby Jug caricature of a populist”, pint in one hand, fag in the other. “Entertaining and dangerous, but not a serious threat.” But, as a close colleague tells me, “Nigel is a different Nigel”. He has become “more thoughtful, more reflective” and “more determined than ever”. Why? Because “he really believes he can be the prime minister” in a way that he didn’t even a year ago. The Reform leader, so often found in a whirl of nicotine at the Marquis of Granby pub, or “indulging in a long lunch at Boisdale” in Victoria, has been “sobering up”. The party is soaking up advice from across the centre right and reaching nuanced positions (pro free market, but also concerned about inequality and market failure). Former cabinet secretary Simon Case has suggested Reform be invited to pre-election briefings, and KCs have been brought in to draft legislation on immigration. Labour was “all campaigning and no preparation”, says one senior Reform figure. “We are determined not to make the same mistakes.”

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THE THAI VILLA This sprawling home in Koh Samui, Thailand has a pool bigger than the house itself, says Country Life. On the first floor are a kitchen, a large open-plan dining and living area, a sunken eating space with a BBQ and a separate TV room. There’s also a terrace, a jacuzzi and access to the property’s giant pool. On the ground level are six bedrooms, including the master suite, along with a wellness room and a steam room, while on the lower level are two further bedrooms, a snooker room, a gym and a private cinema. Koh Samui airport is a 10-minute drive. $5.5m. Click on the image to see the listing.

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The rest of this week’s heroes and villains – including Giles Coren on how musicians spoiled the “annual anti-Semitism festival” at Glastonbury by brazenly singing pop songs in broad daylight, and how the Norwegian lottery got its maths wrong and had to tell dozens of players they hadn’t actually become millionaires – are for paying subscribers only.

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