Iran has rejected an American proposal to end the war and issued its own list of demands, including the payment of reparations, guarantees over Tehran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the end of hostilities against “all resistance groups”, in an apparent reference to Israel’s fight with Hezbollah. Donald Trump says Tehran’s leaders are afraid to admit they are negotiating because they fear being “killed by their own people”. A jury in Los Angeles has found Meta and YouTube liable for intentionally building addictive social media platforms that harmed a young user’s mental health. The landmark ruling, which awarded the unnamed plaintiff $6m in damages, came a day after a court in New Mexico ordered Meta to pay $375m in civil penalties for misleading users about the safety of its platforms for children. HBO has released the first trailer for its new Harry Potter series, which will premiere this Christmas. The two-minute teaser is packed with iconic motifs from JK Rowling’s books, including quidditch, the Gryffindor common room and the Hogwarts Express. Click here to watch.

People are rightly worried about what will happen if Donald Trump’s war in Iran drags on, says Niall Ferguson in The Free Press. Further attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure could easily cause a major global recession, and serious strikes on desalination plants would make the region effectively uninhabitable overnight. But what few understand is that, in important ways, the damage is already done. Drone strikes have shut Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant, which produces nearly 20% of the world’s liquified natural gas, and repairs could take five years. Thanks to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf states have cut their oil output by 10% of the global total. Even if the strait were reopened tomorrow, it could take months for that production to come back online. This oil shock has already happened; we’re just waiting for it to hit.

Some places are already feeling the pain, says Sam Freedman on Substack. Bangladesh is facing temporary blackouts; Pakistan’s fuel prices are up 20%; Egypt is restricting opening hours and encouraging WFH; parts of Kenya are running out of fuel. And global crises like this always create “ongoing aftershocks” that cause further problems down the line. The 2008 financial crisis raised energy and food prices in north Africa and the Middle East, helping kickstart the Arab Spring, which led to hugely destructive civil wars and a big rise in migration to Europe, boosting the radical right. A new round of prolonged energy shortages and higher food prices now could have similar consequences, or worse. Another migrant wave could hand major victories to the far right – Jordan Bardella is already favourite in next year’s French presidential elections – further destabilising Europe. And who knows what else.

🤖⚡️ One underpriced victim in all this is AI, says Bruno Maçães in The New Statesman. Gulf sovereign wealth funds have pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into energy-intensive data centres and Silicon Valley funds. “That capital is now in question.” And Taiwan’s TSMC, which makes 90% of all advanced chips, consumes more energy than the population of Sri Lanka – energy that’s about to get extremely expensive, even for AI.