Donald Trump says a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will begin at 10am ET (3pm UK time) after Iran rejected American demands to reopen the waterway and end its nuclear programme during weekend peace talks. The president said the US navy would stop “all ships trying to enter and leave” and that “any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” Viktor Orbán conceded defeat in Hungary’s parliamentary elections last night, ending his 16-year grip on power. Voters handed opposition party Tisza a landslide victory after its leader Péter Magyar – once a senior figure in Orbán’s Fidesz party – promised to repair the country’s relationship with the EU and crack down on corruption. Paddington was the big winner at last night’s Olivier awards, scooping seven prizes, including Best New Musical. Rosamund Pike won Best Actress in a Play for her role in the legal drama Inter Alia, while Rachel Zegler was named Best Actress in a Musical for her run as Eva Péron in Evita.

Donald Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “makes a kind of sense”, says Marc Champion in Bloomberg. Iran’s economy is massively reliant on oil revenue, so making sure they suffer as much as everyone else from closing the waterway should sharply increase pressure on Tehran. Yet that logic only works if you think the Islamic Republic won’t respond by striking more energy assets around the Gulf, and will fold under the economic strain before Trump does. Both propositions seem “vanishingly unlikely”. Iran has four deterrents against foreign military intervention: its nuclear programme, ballistic missiles, terrorist proxy groups and ability to disrupt the strait. For Trump to think they will give up all four is “delusional”.

US officials are obviously aware of the risk that Tehran will hit back militarily, says David Ignatius in The Washington Post. But they think there are two other possible scenarios. First, that the regime is overthrown in a popular uprising, an outcome they think is more likely after the bombing has stopped than before. Second, that some Iranian leader – such as parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has been leading the negotiations in Pakistan – decides to cross what the Trump team has pitched as a “golden bridge” into a new future. That’s why the US offered Tehran such a “glittering package” of economic benefits, including sanctions relief: to convince Ghalibaf and his colleagues to transition from being a revolutionary “cause” to a “real country” that can modernise quickly and profitably, as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have done. It’s impossible to tell if Iran is anywhere near this tipping point. But historically, such moments of realignment have tended to follow wars. As Dwight Eisenhower apparently said: “If you cannot solve a problem, enlarge it.”

🇨🇳🛢️ The real pressure for Iran may come from Beijing, says The Wall Street Journal. China’s oil tankers have been given priority passage through the strait since the war broke out. If that’s no longer possible, the Chinese may start leaning on their ally to reopen the waterway entirely.